Tennis · ATP Almaty · 19/10, 11:30
Prediction: Marin Cilic vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Team pages: Marin Cilic · Nikoloz Basilashvili
Prediction summary
Winner
Marin Cilic
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marin Cilic
4-6 (W-L)
Nikoloz Basilashvili
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marin Cilic
2–0
Nikoloz Basilashvili
(2 last)
- 01 Oct2-0 13-9W
- 10 Jun2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marin Cilic 1460 · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1615
| Marin Cilic | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 71% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikoloz Basilashvili (rating 1460 vs 1615).
- Marin Cilic dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 41.9% break avg.
- Nikoloz Basilashvili is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Marin Cilic 2–0 Nikoloz Basilashvili (2).
Statistics
| Marin Cilic | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (6) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-13.6 | 13.9-10 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 9 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 80.9% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 37.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 24.5 · -1.6
Over 24.5: 39% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 61% · 1.83
H2H · Marin Cilic 2 – 0 Nikoloz Basilashvili (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marin Cilic 2–0 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/25 ATP Shanghai | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/06/21 ATP Stuttgart | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marin Cilic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/10 | Adam Walton Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 07/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Nikoloz Basilashvili
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Adam Walton ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/10 | Taro Daniel ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 06/10 | Liam Draxl ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 05/10 | Andre Ilagan ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 28/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 27/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Hanlei Lu ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marin Cilic vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?
Our model gives 61% to Nikoloz Basilashvili, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.