Tennis · ATP Almaty · 20/10, 08:30
Prediction: Rei Sakamoto vs Karen Khachanov
Team pages: Rei Sakamoto · Karen Khachanov
Prediction summary
Winner
Rei Sakamoto
Karen Khachanov
Estimated games
25.3Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rei Sakamoto
7-3 (W-L)
Karen Khachanov
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rei Sakamoto 1569 · Karen Khachanov 1551
| Rei Sakamoto | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Rei Sakamoto dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 40.8% break avg.
- Karen Khachanov dominates on serve: 8.1 aces and 47.5% break avg.
Statistics
| Rei Sakamoto | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.7-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-10.8 | 15.8-13 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 8.1 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 77.5% | 78.4% |
| Break % | 40.8% | 47.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +0.8
Over 24.5: 55% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 45% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rei Sakamoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 17/10 | Amir Omarkhanov ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/10 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 05/10 | Seong Chan Hong ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Karen Khachanov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 04/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-23 | W |
| 05/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rei Sakamoto vs Karen Khachanov?
Our model gives 56% to Karen Khachanov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.