Tennis · Challenger Cali · 20/10, 17:00
Prediction: Daniel Elahi Galan vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Team pages: Daniel Elahi Galan · Juan Pablo Varillas
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Elahi Galan
Juan Pablo Varillas
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Elahi Galan
4-6 (W-L)
Juan Pablo Varillas
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Elahi Galan
3–2
Juan Pablo Varillas
(5 last)
- 10 Jul2-0 13-10W
- 09 Oct0-2 5-12L
- 14 Dec2-1 13-14W
- 03 Jul2-0 12-5W
- 18 Sept0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Elahi Galan 1490 · Juan Pablo Varillas 1545
| Daniel Elahi Galan | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Pablo Varillas (rating 1490 vs 1545).
- Head-to-head: Daniel Elahi Galan 3–2 Juan Pablo Varillas (5).
Statistics
| Daniel Elahi Galan | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-13.4 | 12-12 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 48.4% | 40.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
H2H · Daniel Elahi Galan 3 – 2 Juan Pablo Varillas (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Elahi Galan 3–2 Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/24 Challenger Braunschweig | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 09/10/19 Challenger Santo Domingo | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/12/17 ITF Peru F1 | 2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 03/07/15 ITF Colombia F4 | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09/14 ITF Colombia F6 | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Elahi Galan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Calvin Hemery Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 17/09 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 07/09 | Marko Topo Challenger Tulln · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Federico Agustin Gomez Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/08 | Murkel Dellien Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Georgi Georgiev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 31/07 | Max Dahlin Challenger Bonn · Clay |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 30/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 28/07 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Murkel Dellien Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 22/09 | Tomas Farjat Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 20/09 | Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Davis Cup |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 11/09 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/09 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 06/09 | Matej Dodig Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Elahi Galan vs Juan Pablo Varillas?
Our model gives 56% to Juan Pablo Varillas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.