Tennis · Challenger Cali · 20/10, 17:00
Prediction: Federico Coria vs Nicolas Mejia
Team pages: Federico Coria · Nicolas Mejia
Prediction summary
Winner
Federico Coria
Nicolas Mejia
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Federico Coria
2-8 (W-L)
Nicolas Mejia
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Federico Coria
1–0
Nicolas Mejia
(1 last)
- 17 Oct2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federico Coria 1415 · Nicolas Mejia 1472
| Federico Coria | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nicolas Mejia (rating 1415 vs 1472).
- Head-to-head: Federico Coria 1–0 Nicolas Mejia (1).
Statistics
| Federico Coria | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.7 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.7-12.4 | 11.2-12.6 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 65.4% | 67% |
| Break % | 43.5% | 34.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
H2H · Federico Coria 1 – 0 Nicolas Mejia (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Federico Coria 1–0 Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/23 Challenger Santa Fe | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federico Coria
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Lucio Ratti Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 25/08 | Clement Chidekh US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Taro Daniel ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/06 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Oliver Bonding Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Michael Zheng ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/09 | Tallon Griekspoor Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Liam Draxl US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Adam Walton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federico Coria vs Nicolas Mejia?
Our model gives 64% to Nicolas Mejia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.