Tennis · Challenger Cali · 20/10, 17:00
Prediction: Facundo Mena vs Valerio Aboian
Team pages: Facundo Mena · Valerio Aboian
Prediction summary
Winner
Facundo Mena
Valerio Aboian
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Facundo Mena
8-2 (W-L)
Valerio Aboian
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Facundo Mena
2–3
Valerio Aboian
(5 last)
- 30 Jun0-2 2-12L
- 15 Apr0-2 9-13L
- 25 Mar1-2 11-17L
- 15 Dec2-0 12-6W
- 09 Dec2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Facundo Mena 1578 · Valerio Aboian 1526
| Facundo Mena | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Facundo Mena (rating 1578 vs 1526).
- Head-to-head: Facundo Mena 2–3 Valerio Aboian (5).
Statistics
| Facundo Mena | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9.3 | 11-11.5 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71.8% | 62.4% |
| Break % | 43.1% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
H2H · Facundo Mena 2 – 3 Valerio Aboian (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Facundo Mena 2–3 Valerio Aboian
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/26 Challenger Quito | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 15/04/26 Challenger Santa Cruz | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/03/25 Challenger Concepcion | 1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 15/12/23 ITF M15 Concepcion | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/12/23 ITF M15 Concepcion | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Facundo Mena
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/10 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/09 | Alex Barrena Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 25/09 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/09 | Renzo Olivo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/09 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/09 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 04/09 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Valerio Aboian
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 05/10 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 21/09 | Matias Franco Descotte Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 20/09 | Julian Cundom Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 11/09 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/09 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/09 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 07/09 | Lorenzo Rottoli Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Facundo Mena vs Valerio Aboian?
Our model gives 66% to Facundo Mena, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.