Tennis · Challenger Fort Worth · 18/10, 22:30
Prediction: Joshua Sheehy vs Aidan Mchugh
Team pages: Joshua Sheehy · Aidan Mchugh
Prediction summary
Winner
Joshua Sheehy
Aidan Mchugh
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Joshua Sheehy
4-6 (W-L)
Aidan Mchugh
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Joshua Sheehy
0–1
Aidan Mchugh
(1 last)
- 04 Jan1-2 14-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joshua Sheehy 1395 · Aidan Mchugh 1587
| Joshua Sheehy | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 75% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mchugh (rating 1395 vs 1587).
- Joshua Sheehy dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 47.3% break avg.
- Aidan Mchugh is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Joshua Sheehy 0–1 Aidan Mchugh (1).
- Note: Joshua Sheehy makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Joshua Sheehy | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 11% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.8 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-14.2 | 11.8-8.1 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 5.6 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 76% |
| Break % | 47.3% | 35.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
H2H · Joshua Sheehy 0 – 1 Aidan Mchugh (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Joshua Sheehy 0–1 Aidan Mchugh
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/26 Challenger Nottingham | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joshua Sheehy
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Ivan Marrero Curbelo Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 13/09 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Evan Zhu Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 27/07 | Renta Tokuda Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 19/07 | Edward Winter Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 13/07 | Christian Langmo Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 12/07 | Kelly Giese Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 25/05 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Aidan Mchugh
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Karl Poling M25 Austin |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Martin Riu M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/09 | Samir Banerjee M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/09 | Alexandre Reco M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/09 | Leonardo Rossi M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/09 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra M25 Nevers |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 16/09 | Valentin Lapalu M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/09 | Leonardo Rossi M25 Pozzuoli |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | David Eichenseher M25 Pozzuoli |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/09 | Matteo Mesaglio M25 Pozzuoli |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joshua Sheehy vs Aidan Mchugh?
Our model gives 69% to Aidan Mchugh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.