Tennis · Challenger Fort Worth · 18/10, 22:30
Prediction: Spencer Johnson vs Erik Arutiunian
Team pages: Spencer Johnson · Erik Arutiunian
Prediction summary
Winner
Spencer Johnson
Erik Arutiunian
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Spencer Johnson
5-5 (W-L)
Erik Arutiunian
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Spencer Johnson
0–1
Erik Arutiunian
(1 last)
- 14 Sept0-2 12-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spencer Johnson 1505 · Erik Arutiunian 1548
| Spencer Johnson | Erik Arutiunian | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Erik Arutiunian (rating 1505 vs 1548).
- Erik Arutiunian dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 61.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Spencer Johnson 0–1 Erik Arutiunian (1).
Statistics
| Spencer Johnson | Erik Arutiunian | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-11.7 | 10.8-9.3 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 6.8 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 38.8% | 61.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Spencer Johnson 0 – 1 Erik Arutiunian (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Spencer Johnson 0–1 Erik Arutiunian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/26 Challenger Tiburon | 0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spencer Johnson
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Alastair Gray M25 Austin |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 22/09 | Tristan Boyer Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/09 | Jakub Vrba Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Jan Kobierski Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/09 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/09 | Vignesh Gogineni Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Cristian Garin US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 08/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Erik Arutiunian
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Trevor Svajda Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Andrew Fenty Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Luca Staeheli Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Braden Shick Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/09 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/09 | Nicholas Godsick Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/08 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Astana · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Sanhui Shin Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 10/08 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Egor Pleshivtsev Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spencer Johnson vs Erik Arutiunian?
Our model gives 54% to Spencer Johnson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.