Tennis · Challenger Fort Worth · 18/10, 18:00
Prediction: Karl Poling vs Alex Rybakov
Team pages: Karl Poling · Alex Rybakov
Prediction summary
Winner
Karl Poling
Alex Rybakov
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Karl Poling
5-5 (W-L)
Alex Rybakov
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karl Poling 1439 · Alex Rybakov 1481
| Karl Poling | Alex Rybakov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Rybakov (rating 1439 vs 1481).
Statistics
| Karl Poling | Alex Rybakov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 14% (7) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-13.3 | 11.5-11.5 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.7% | 75.1% |
| Break % | 33% | 26.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karl Poling
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Iker Urribarrens M25 Austin |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Aidan Mchugh M25 Austin |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 21/09 | Moez Echargui Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/09 | Nikola Slavic Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 25/08 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 16/08 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Alex Rybakov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Columbus · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 27/09 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/09 | Ozan Baris Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Karue Sell Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/09 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/09 | Dan Martin Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Oliver Bonding Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 19/08 | Charles Broom Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Fares Zakaria Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/08 | Oliver Tarvet M25 Roehampton · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karl Poling vs Alex Rybakov?
Our model gives 57% to Alex Rybakov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.