Tennis · Challenger Cali · 18/10, 21:30
Prediction: Alex Hernandez vs Matteo Covato
Team pages: Alex Hernandez · Matteo Covato
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Hernandez
Matteo Covato
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Hernandez
8-2 (W-L)
Matteo Covato
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Hernandez 1551 · Matteo Covato 1509
| Alex Hernandez | Matteo Covato | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Hernandez (rating 1551 vs 1509).
Statistics
| Alex Hernandez | Matteo Covato | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-10.7 | 10-10.8 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 8.8 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 74.7% | 68.1% |
| Break % | 43.7% | 34.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Hernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Juan Sebastian Osorio M15 Quito · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 16/10 | Ivan Dreycopp M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 15/10 | Felipe De Dios M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/10 | Gray Voelzke M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/10 | Tristan McCormick M15 Quito · ~Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 08/10 | Miles Clark M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/10 | Mario Andre Galarraga M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Tuncay Duran Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 06/09 | Cem Ilkel Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Matteo Covato
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Ivan Dreycopp M15 Quito · ~Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 14/10 | Emilio Camacho M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/10 | Lucas Andrade da Silva M15 Quito · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/10 | Felipe De Dios M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/10 | Mwendwa Mbithi M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Dakotah Bobo M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/09 | Stefan Seifert M15 Forbach |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Victor Barrere M15 Forbach |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/09 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Hernandez vs Matteo Covato?
Our model gives 73% to Alex Hernandez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.