Tennis · Challenger Cali · 18/10, 20:00
Prediction: Mateus Alves vs Bernardo Munk Mesa
Team pages: Mateus Alves · Bernardo Munk Mesa
Prediction summary
Winner
Mateus Alves
Bernardo Munk Mesa
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Mateus Alves
7-3 (W-L)
Bernardo Munk Mesa
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mateus Alves 1512 · Bernardo Munk Mesa 1478
| Mateus Alves | Bernardo Munk Mesa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Mateus Alves is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Bernardo Munk Mesa makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Mateus Alves | Bernardo Munk Mesa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-8.4 | 11.2-12.8 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.1% | 64.8% |
| Break % | 48.5% | 51.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mateus Alves
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/10 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jose Pereira Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Bautista De La Pena Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Jose Pereira Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/09 | Wilson Leite M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/09 | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/09 | Manuel Mouilleron Salvo M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Bernardo Munk Mesa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/10 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 04/10 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 08/09 | Mario Arce Fernandez M25 Gijon |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 04/09 | Ryan Nijboer M15 Madrid |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Juan Ignacio Gallego M15 Madrid |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Carles Cordoba M15 Madrid |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Pedro Vives Marcos M25 Oviedo |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mateus Alves vs Bernardo Munk Mesa?
Our model gives 68% to Mateus Alves, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.