Prediction: Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti
Team pages: Matteo Arnaldi · Lorenzo Musetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Arnaldi
Lorenzo Musetti
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Arnaldi
5-5 (W-L)
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matteo Arnaldi
0–4
Lorenzo Musetti
(4 last)
- 14 Jan1-3 21-24L
- 19 Jul1-2 15-17L
- 14 May0-2 8-12L
- 09 Apr0-2 2-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Arnaldi 1480 · Lorenzo Musetti 1507
| Matteo Arnaldi | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Matteo Arnaldi 0–4 Lorenzo Musetti (4).
Statistics
| Matteo Arnaldi | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.6 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-14.7 | 12.7-11.3 |
| Aces | 5.7 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 70.4% |
| Break % | 44.1% | 49% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.9
Over 22.5: 63% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 37% · 1.72
H2H · Matteo Arnaldi 0 – 4 Lorenzo Musetti (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Arnaldi 0–4 Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/25 Australian Open | 1-3 | 21-24 | L |
| 19/07/23 ATP Bastad | 1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 14/05/23 ATP Rome | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/04/19 Challenger Barletta | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Arnaldi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Bernard Tomic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 31/08 | James Duckworth US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 15/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 15/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 03/09 | Dane Sweeny US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 11-21 | L |
| 01/09 | Arthur Fery US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 22/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model gives 64% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.