Tennis · ATP Brussels · 18/10, 16:00
Prediction: Martin Damm vs Andrea Guerrieri
Team pages: Martin Damm · Andrea Guerrieri
Prediction summary
Winner
Martin Damm
Andrea Guerrieri
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Martin Damm
7-3 (W-L)
Andrea Guerrieri
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martin Damm 1490 · Andrea Guerrieri 1529
| Martin Damm | Andrea Guerrieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Martin Damm dominates on serve: 14.5 aces and 41.2% break avg.
- Note: Andrea Guerrieri makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Martin Damm | Andrea Guerrieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-12.9 | 12.5-11.5 |
| Aces | 14.5 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 77.3% | 68.5% |
| Break % | 41.2% | 55% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.6
Over 22.5: 61% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 39% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martin Damm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Buvaysar Gadamauri ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Pavel Kotov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 28/09 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 8-14 | L |
| 26/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 27/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Andrea Guerrieri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/10 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/10 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 21/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Alex De Minaur US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 27/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Joel Schwaerzler US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martin Damm vs Andrea Guerrieri?
Our model gives 59% to Martin Damm, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.