Tennis · ATP Almaty · 18/10, 09:30
Prediction: Roman Safiullin vs Ilia Simakin
Team pages: Roman Safiullin · Ilia Simakin
Prediction summary
Winner
Roman Safiullin
Ilia Simakin
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Roman Safiullin
6-4 (W-L)
Ilia Simakin
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roman Safiullin 1578 · Ilia Simakin 1594
| Roman Safiullin | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Roman Safiullin dominates on serve: 8.3 aces and 54.5% break avg.
Statistics
| Roman Safiullin | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-9.4 | 13.6-10.3 |
| Aces | 8.3 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 75.1% | 71.8% |
| Break % | 54.5% | 37.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.6
Over 21.5: 55% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 45% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roman Safiullin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Ilya Ivashka ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 09/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Quentin Halys ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Ilia Simakin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Luka Pavlovic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 13/10 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/10 | Rigele Te ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Luka Pavlovic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/09 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 19/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 18/09 | Cruz Hewitt Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/09 | Blake Ellis Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/09 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roman Safiullin vs Ilia Simakin?
Our model gives 64% to Roman Safiullin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.