Tennis · ATP Almaty · 20/10, 08:00
Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
Team pages: Stefanos Tsitsipas · Aleksandar Kovacevic
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Estimated games
23.1Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Stefanos Tsitsipas
6-4 (W-L)
Aleksandar Kovacevic
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefanos Tsitsipas
1–1
Aleksandar Kovacevic
(2 last)
- 27 Aug0-2 9-13L
- 23 Feb2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1571 · Aleksandar Kovacevic 1466
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Aleksandar Kovacevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefanos Tsitsipas (rating 1571 vs 1466).
- Stefanos Tsitsipas dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 42.4% break avg.
- Aleksandar Kovacevic dominates on serve: 9.1 aces and 42.5% break avg.
- Stefanos Tsitsipas is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Aleksandar Kovacevic makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Aleksandar Kovacevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-10.9 | 11.2-12.9 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 9.1 |
| Double faults | 1 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 78.2% | 76% |
| Break % | 42.4% | 42.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 47% · 2.00
Under 23.5: 53% · 1.72
H2H · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1 – 1 Aleksandar Kovacevic (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1–1 Aleksandar Kovacevic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/26 ATP Winston-Salem | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/02/24 ATP Los Cabos | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 10/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Yoshihito Nishioka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/09 | Alex Molcan Davis Cup |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 19/09 | Norbert Gombos Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/09 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Zachary Svajda ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 24/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 27/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/08 | Luca Van Assche ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Felix Balshaw ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Aleksandar Kovacevic?
Our model gives 70% to Stefanos Tsitsipas, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.