Tennis · ATP Almaty · 20/10, 08:00
Prediction: Adrian Mannarino vs Aleksandar Vukic
Team pages: Adrian Mannarino · Aleksandar Vukic
Prediction summary
Winner
Adrian Mannarino
Aleksandar Vukic
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adrian Mannarino
6-4 (W-L)
Aleksandar Vukic
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Adrian Mannarino
2–2
Aleksandar Vukic
(4 last)
- 17 Oct0-2 9-13L
- 20 Aug1-2 13-15L
- 09 Mar2-0 12-4W
- 02 Jan2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Mannarino 1511 · Aleksandar Vukic 1474
| Adrian Mannarino | Aleksandar Vukic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Adrian Mannarino | Aleksandar Vukic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-12.3 | 12.6-13.5 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 8.2 |
| Double faults | 1 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 72% |
| Break % | 35.1% | 33.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +0.7
Over 23.5: 55% · 2.00
Under 23.5: 45% · 1.72
H2H · Adrian Mannarino 2 – 2 Aleksandar Vukic (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adrian Mannarino 2–2 Aleksandar Vukic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/24 ATP Almaty | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/08/24 ATP Winston-Salem | 1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 09/03/20 Challenger Monterrey | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/01/17 Challenger Noumea | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 29/09 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 27/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 25/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/09 | Juncheng Shang ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Dan Added Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 5-18 | L |
Aleksandar Vukic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Tomas Machac Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/10 | Pavel Kotov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Jie Cui ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 28/09 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 31/08 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 20/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Kyrian Jacquet Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/08 | Mark Lajal ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Mannarino vs Aleksandar Vukic?
Our model gives 58% to Adrian Mannarino, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.