Tennis · ATP Almaty · 18/10, 08:00
Prediction: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Team pages: Adam Walton · Nikoloz Basilashvili
Prediction summary
Winner
Adam Walton
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adam Walton
5-5 (W-L)
Nikoloz Basilashvili
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adam Walton 1480 · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1590
| Adam Walton | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikoloz Basilashvili (rating 1480 vs 1590).
- Adam Walton dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 47.1% break avg.
- Nikoloz Basilashvili is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Adam Walton | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11 | 13.5-10.3 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 8.2 |
| Double faults | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 79.1% |
| Break % | 47.1% | 39.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 24.5 · -2.2
Over 24.5: 35% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 65% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adam Walton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Beibit Zhukayev ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 13/10 | Marin Cilic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 05/10 | Rigele Te ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Moise Kouame Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/09 | Hikaru Shiraishi Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/09 | Valentin Royer ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Yibing Wu US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 25/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Taro Daniel ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 06/10 | Liam Draxl ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 05/10 | Andre Ilagan ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 28/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 27/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Hanlei Lu ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/08 | Seong Chan Hong US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?
Our model gives 58% to Nikoloz Basilashvili, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.