Tennis · ATP Almaty · 18/10, 08:00
Prediction: Gabriel Diallo vs Rei Sakamoto
Team pages: Gabriel Diallo · Rei Sakamoto
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriel Diallo
Rei Sakamoto
Estimated games
25.1Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriel Diallo
1-9 (W-L)
Rei Sakamoto
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriel Diallo 1479 · Rei Sakamoto 1544
| Gabriel Diallo | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rei Sakamoto (rating 1479 vs 1544).
- Gabriel Diallo dominates on serve: 8.6 aces and 57.5% break avg.
- Rei Sakamoto dominates on serve: 8.9 aces and 42.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Gabriel Diallo | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.6 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-14.4 | 12.9-11.4 |
| Aces | 8.6 | 8.9 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72% | 76.6% |
| Break % | 57.5% | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.1 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.6
Over 23.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 39% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriel Diallo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Harold Mayot ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/08 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 28/07 | Tristan Boyer ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Lorenzo Sonego Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-30 | L |
| 25/06 | Jack Draper ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 16/04 | Alexander Zverev ATP Munich · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Rei Sakamoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Amir Omarkhanov ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/10 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 05/10 | Seong Chan Hong ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriel Diallo vs Rei Sakamoto?
Our model gives 57% to Rei Sakamoto, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.