Tennis · ATP Brussels · 17/10, 17:00
Prediction: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Tom Gentzsch
Team pages: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz · Tom Gentzsch
Prediction summary
Winner
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Tom Gentzsch
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
6-4 (W-L)
Tom Gentzsch
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
1–0
Tom Gentzsch
(1 last)
- 20 Oct2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1528 · Tom Gentzsch 1512
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Tom Gentzsch | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Tom Gentzsch dominates on serve: 6 aces and 43.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1–0 Tom Gentzsch (1).
Statistics
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Tom Gentzsch | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-9.9 | 12.4-12.7 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 6 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 73.9% | 66.4% |
| Break % | 32.1% | 43.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.7
Over 22.5: 55% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 45% · 1.83
H2H · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1 – 0 Tom Gentzsch (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1–0 Tom Gentzsch
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/23 M15 Monastir | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Damir Dzumhur Challenger Olbia · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 06/10 | Federico Cina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/10 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 23/09 | Reiya Komagata M25 Yinchuan |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 06/09 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/09 | Jorge Plans M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/09 | Nicolas Jadoun M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Edison Ambarzumjan M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniele Augenti M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/08 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Tom Gentzsch
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Damir Dzumhur Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Niels Visker Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/09 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 22/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/09 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 16/09 | Martin Krumich Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/09 | Alan Wazny Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Massimo Giunta Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Tom Gentzsch?
Our model gives 56% to Tom Gentzsch, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.