Tennis · ATP Brussels · 20/10, 12:00
Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Hugo Gaston
Team pages: Jacob Fearnley · Hugo Gaston
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Hugo Gaston
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
7-3 (W-L)
Hugo Gaston
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1575 · Hugo Gaston 1519
| Jacob Fearnley | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jacob Fearnley (rating 1575 vs 1519).
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-11.5 | 12.1-11.8 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 3 |
| Double faults | 6.1 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 72.7% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 45.9% | 40% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.4
Over 22.5: 60% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 40% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/10 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/10 | George Loffhagen Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 31/08 | Martin Landaluce US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-22 | W |
| 28/08 | Jurij Rodionov US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Luka Pavlovic US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 24/08 | Roberto Carballes Baena US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Taro Daniel Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Roanne · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Daniel Jade Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/10 | Liam Draxl ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 25/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 24/09 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 28/08 | Colton Smith US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Andre Ilagan US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Hugo Gaston?
Our model gives 65% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.