Tennis · ATP Almaty · 17/10, 08:00
Prediction: Amir Omarkhanov vs Rei Sakamoto
Team pages: Amir Omarkhanov · Rei Sakamoto
Prediction summary
Winner
Amir Omarkhanov
Rei Sakamoto
Estimated games
21.8Bet365 line 17.5
Recent form · 10 last
Amir Omarkhanov
6-4 (W-L)
Rei Sakamoto
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Amir Omarkhanov 1510 · Rei Sakamoto 1524
| Amir Omarkhanov | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 9% | 91% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Rei Sakamoto dominates on serve: 12.5 aces and 40.8% break avg.
- Note: Amir Omarkhanov makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Amir Omarkhanov | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.8 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.7-7.3 | 14.4-13.6 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 12.5 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 40.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8 · Bet365 line 17.5 · +4.3
Over 17.5: 78% · 1.72
Under 17.5: 22% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Amir Omarkhanov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Etienne Donnet Challenger Roanne · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/08 | Nicolas Jadoun M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Bader Alabdullah M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 8-1 | W |
| 25/08 | Sean Grosman M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/08 | Beibit Zhukayev Challenger Astana · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Damir Zhalgasbay M15 Astana |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Ryo Tabata M15 Astana |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Volodymyr Iakubenko M15 Astana |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Egor Pleshivtsev M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Felipe Virgili Berini M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Rei Sakamoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/10 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 05/10 | Seong Chan Hong ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 31/08 | Aleksandar Vukic US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-25 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Amir Omarkhanov vs Rei Sakamoto?
Our model gives 74% to Rei Sakamoto, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.