Tennis · ATP Almaty · 17/10, 08:00
Prediction: Gabriel Diallo vs Harold Mayot
Team pages: Gabriel Diallo · Harold Mayot
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriel Diallo
Harold Mayot
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriel Diallo
1-9 (W-L)
Harold Mayot
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Gabriel Diallo
0–1
Harold Mayot
(1 last)
- 25 Jan0-2 12-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriel Diallo 1470 · Harold Mayot 1581
| Gabriel Diallo | Harold Mayot | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Harold Mayot (rating 1470 vs 1581).
- Gabriel Diallo dominates on serve: 8 aces and 57.6% break avg.
- Harold Mayot is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Gabriel Diallo 0–1 Harold Mayot (1).
Statistics
| Gabriel Diallo | Harold Mayot | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.6 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-13.9 | 13.1-11.9 |
| Aces | 8 | 5 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71.3% | 73.4% |
| Break % | 57.6% | 39.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 24.5
Over 24.5: 49% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 51% · 1.83
H2H · Gabriel Diallo 0 – 1 Harold Mayot (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gabriel Diallo 0–1 Harold Mayot
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/24 Challenger Quimper | 0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriel Diallo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 28/07 | Tristan Boyer ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Lorenzo Sonego Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-30 | L |
| 25/06 | Jack Draper ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 16/04 | Alexander Zverev ATP Munich · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/04 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Munich · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Harold Mayot
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 30/09 | Niels Visker Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 27/09 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Justin Boulais Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 20/09 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 19/09 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/09 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Clement Tabur Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriel Diallo vs Harold Mayot?
Our model gives 57% to Harold Mayot, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.