Tennis · ATP Almaty · 17/10, 09:30
Prediction: Taro Daniel vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Team pages: Taro Daniel · Nikoloz Basilashvili
Prediction summary
Winner
Taro Daniel
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Taro Daniel
7-3 (W-L)
Nikoloz Basilashvili
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Taro Daniel
0–3
Nikoloz Basilashvili
(3 last)
- 11 Mar0-2 5-12L
- 03 Nov0-2 9-13L
- 25 Apr0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Taro Daniel 1477 · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1570
| Taro Daniel | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikoloz Basilashvili (rating 1477 vs 1570).
- Nikoloz Basilashvili is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Taro Daniel 0–3 Nikoloz Basilashvili (3).
Statistics
| Taro Daniel | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-11.6 | 13-10.8 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 8 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 76.7% |
| Break % | 44.4% | 32.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 51% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 49% · 1.83
H2H · Taro Daniel 0 – 3 Nikoloz Basilashvili (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Taro Daniel 0–3 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/25 Challenger Phoenix | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/11/24 Challenger Seoul | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/04/17 ATP Barcelona | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Taro Daniel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 28/09 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 24/09 | Dane Sweeny ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Hayato Matsuoka ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/09 | Jake Delaney ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/09 | Matthew Dellavedova Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Andrew Johnson US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 22/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Nikoloz Basilashvili
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Liam Draxl ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 05/10 | Andre Ilagan ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 28/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 27/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Hanlei Lu ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/08 | Seong Chan Hong US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Taro Daniel vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?
Our model gives 64% to Nikoloz Basilashvili, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.