Tennis · ATP Almaty · 17/10, 11:00
Prediction: Luka Pavlovic vs Ilia Simakin
Team pages: Luka Pavlovic · Ilia Simakin
Prediction summary
Winner
Luka Pavlovic
Ilia Simakin
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luka Pavlovic
7-3 (W-L)
Ilia Simakin
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luka Pavlovic
0–1
Ilia Simakin
(1 last)
- 05 Oct1-2 11-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luka Pavlovic 1515 · Ilia Simakin 1586
| Luka Pavlovic | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilia Simakin (rating 1515 vs 1586).
- Luka Pavlovic dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 41.1% break avg.
- Ilia Simakin is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Luka Pavlovic 0–1 Ilia Simakin (1).
Statistics
| Luka Pavlovic | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-10.7 | 13.3-9.8 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 80.5% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 44.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.3
Over 23.5: 41% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 59% · 1.80
H2H · Luka Pavlovic 0 – 1 Ilia Simakin (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luka Pavlovic 0–1 Ilia Simakin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/26 ATP Shanghai | 1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Kangyuan Shi Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 11/10 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/10 | Ilia Simakin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 15/09 | Ha Minh Duc Vu Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Ilia Simakin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/10 | Rigele Te ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Luka Pavlovic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/09 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 19/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 18/09 | Cruz Hewitt Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/09 | Blake Ellis Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/09 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luka Pavlovic vs Ilia Simakin?
Our model gives 63% to Ilia Simakin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.