Tennis · W15 Shenzhen · 16/10, 04:00
Prediction: Ekaterina Ovcharenko vs Chengyiyi Yuan
Team pages: Ekaterina Ovcharenko · Chengyiyi Yuan
Prediction summary
Winner
Ekaterina Ovcharenko
Chengyiyi Yuan
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Ekaterina Ovcharenko
7-3 (W-L)
Chengyiyi Yuan
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ekaterina Ovcharenko 1543 · Chengyiyi Yuan 1495
| Ekaterina Ovcharenko | Chengyiyi Yuan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ekaterina Ovcharenko (rating 1543 vs 1495).
- Ekaterina Ovcharenko is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Ekaterina Ovcharenko makes many double faults (5.5/match).
- Note: Chengyiyi Yuan makes many double faults (10.6/match).
Statistics
| Ekaterina Ovcharenko | Chengyiyi Yuan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-9.8 | 10.9-11.9 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 10.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71.5% | 66.3% |
| Break % | 45.7% | 56.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ekaterina Ovcharenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Junlu Sun W15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 13/10 | Liuyan An W15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Elsa Jacquemot WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Fiona Crawley WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 23/08 | Esha Velaga WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Ekaterine Gorgodze W100 Landisville |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Stephanie Yakoff W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Savannah Broadus W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/08 | Tori Kinard W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Chengyiyi Yuan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Hong Yi Cody Wong W15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/10 | Yiming Dang W15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 04/10 | Han Shi WTA Suzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 27/09 | Amelia Rajecki WTA Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Nika Radisic WTA Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/09 | Daria Khomutsianskaya W35 Shenyang |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 06/09 | Ya-Yi Yang W50 Guiyang |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 31/08 | Jia-Jing Lu W75 Tianjin |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Eunhye Lee W15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Thasaporn Naklo W15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ekaterina Ovcharenko vs Chengyiyi Yuan?
Our model gives 51% to Chengyiyi Yuan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.