Tennis · W35 Santa Margherita · 15/10, 10:00
Prediction: Chiara Fornasieri vs Matilde Paoletti
Team pages: Chiara Fornasieri · Matilde Paoletti
Prediction summary
Winner
Chiara Fornasieri
Matilde Paoletti
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Chiara Fornasieri
8-2 (W-L)
Matilde Paoletti
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chiara Fornasieri 1553 · Matilde Paoletti 1538
| Chiara Fornasieri | Matilde Paoletti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 13% | 87% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Chiara Fornasieri | Matilde Paoletti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (5) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-8.1 | 11.8-10.2 |
| Aces | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 59% | 56.5% |
| Break % | 67.2% | 53% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chiara Fornasieri
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Matilde Mariani W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/10 | Federica Bilardo W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 9-4 | W |
| 10/10 | Lujza Beviz W15 Szekesfehervar |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/10 | Anika Jaskova W15 Szekesfehervar |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/10 | Lana Virc W15 Szekesfehervar |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 07/10 | Patricia Georgiana Goina W15 Szekesfehervar |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/09 | Viola Turini W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Alessandra Fiorillo W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/09 | Barbara Dessolis W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 7-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Sofia Shapatava W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
Matilde Paoletti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Alessandra Mazzola W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 08/10 | Eva Bennemann W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/10 | Francesca Gandolfi W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/09 | Alisa Oktiabreva W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Daria Yesypchuk W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/09 | Maria Toma W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/09 | Marianne Argyrokastriti W35 Reus · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Diletta Cherubini W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 08/09 | Sophie Greiner W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 26/08 | Gabriela Ce W35 Trieste |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chiara Fornasieri vs Matilde Paoletti?
Our model gives 69% to Matilde Paoletti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.