Tennis · Challenger Maia · 15/10, 11:00
Prediction: Matej Dodig vs Lukas Neumayer
Team pages: Matej Dodig · Lukas Neumayer
Prediction summary
Winner
Matej Dodig
Lukas Neumayer
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Matej Dodig
6-4 (W-L)
Lukas Neumayer
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matej Dodig
2–0
Lukas Neumayer
(2 last)
- 10 Oct2-0 12-4W
- 11 Jul2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matej Dodig 1619 · Lukas Neumayer 1574
| Matej Dodig | Lukas Neumayer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matej Dodig (rating 1619 vs 1574).
- Head-to-head: Matej Dodig 2–0 Lukas Neumayer (2).
Statistics
| Matej Dodig | Lukas Neumayer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 89% (9) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-9.2 | 12-10.9 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 1 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 77.9% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 45% | 52.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
H2H · Matej Dodig 2 – 0 Lukas Neumayer (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matej Dodig 2–0 Lukas Neumayer
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/26 Challenger Braga | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/07/25 Challenger Trieste | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matej Dodig
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/10 | Elmer Moller Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 10/10 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/10 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/10 | Miguel Damas Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/10 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 19/09 | Alexander Zverev Davis Cup |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 06/09 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Lukas Neumayer
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Elmer Moller Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 10/10 | Matej Dodig Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/10 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 08/10 | Olle Wallin Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/10 | Florian Broska Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 25/09 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 22/09 | Stefano D'Agostino Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/09 | Zizou Bergs Davis Cup |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 11/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matej Dodig vs Lukas Neumayer?
Our model gives 62% to Matej Dodig, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.