Tennis · W15 Shenzhen · 15/10, 04:00
Prediction: Ekaterina Ovcharenko vs Junlu Sun
Team pages: Ekaterina Ovcharenko · Junlu Sun
Prediction summary
Winner
Ekaterina Ovcharenko
Junlu Sun
Estimated games
20
Recent form · 10 last
Ekaterina Ovcharenko
6-4 (W-L)
Junlu Sun
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ekaterina Ovcharenko 1514 · Junlu Sun 1471
| Ekaterina Ovcharenko | Junlu Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ekaterina Ovcharenko (rating 1514 vs 1471).
- Ekaterina Ovcharenko is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Ekaterina Ovcharenko makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Ekaterina Ovcharenko | Junlu Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 0.6-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-10 | 8.6-10 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 0 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 52.4% |
| Break % | 44.1% | 66.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ekaterina Ovcharenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Liuyan An W15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Elsa Jacquemot WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Fiona Crawley WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 23/08 | Esha Velaga WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Ekaterine Gorgodze W100 Landisville |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Stephanie Yakoff W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Savannah Broadus W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/08 | Tori Kinard W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/07 | Ankita Raina WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Junlu Sun
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Jiangxue Han W15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/10 | Xiaochuan Nie W15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/10 | Fang An Lin W15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Yingqun Sun W15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Zijun Jiang W15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/09 | Hong Yi Cody Wong W35 Shenyang |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Yuzuha Negishi W15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Ha Yoon Son W15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Naho Sato W15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Xu Yunzhang W15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ekaterina Ovcharenko vs Junlu Sun?
Our model gives 68% to Ekaterina Ovcharenko, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.