Tennis · Challenger Maia · 14/10, 13:30
Prediction: Lorenzo Giustino vs Michael Vrbensky
Team pages: Lorenzo Giustino · Michael Vrbensky
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Giustino
Michael Vrbensky
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Giustino
8-2 (W-L)
Michael Vrbensky
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Giustino
2–0
Michael Vrbensky
(2 last)
- 09 Jan2-1 15-15W
- 01 Jan2-1 17-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Giustino 1551 · Michael Vrbensky 1464
| Lorenzo Giustino | Michael Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Giustino (rating 1551 vs 1464).
- Lorenzo Giustino is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Giustino 2–0 Michael Vrbensky (2).
- Note: Michael Vrbensky makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Giustino | Michael Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-11.2 | 11.1-12.7 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 5 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71.1% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 34% | 41.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
H2H · Lorenzo Giustino 2 – 0 Michael Vrbensky (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Giustino 2–0 Michael Vrbensky
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/24 Challenger Oeiras | 2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 01/01/24 Challenger Oeiras | 2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Giustino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/10 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Palermo · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 06/10 | Christian Langmo Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | John Sperle Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 25/09 | Gerard Campana Lee M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Matias Ponce de Leon Gomila M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
1-0 | 12-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Enrique Carrascosa Diaz M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Grigor Dimitrov US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 19/08 | Henry Bernet Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
Michael Vrbensky
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/10 | Patrick Schoen Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/09 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Prague · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 27/07 | Maxime Janvier Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 20/07 | Patrik Niklas-Salminen Challenger Tampere · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 28/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Milos Karol Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Giustino vs Michael Vrbensky?
Our model gives 67% to Lorenzo Giustino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.