Tennis · M15 Lexington · 14/10, 17:00
Prediction: William Jansen vs Mikael Arseneault
Team pages: William Jansen · Mikael Arseneault
Prediction summary
Winner
William Jansen
Mikael Arseneault
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
William Jansen
5-5 (W-L)
Mikael Arseneault
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · William Jansen 1557 · Mikael Arseneault 1478
| William Jansen | Mikael Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours William Jansen (rating 1557 vs 1478).
- William Jansen is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| William Jansen | Mikael Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-8.8 | 11.6-11.6 |
| Aces | 5 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 75.1% | 65% |
| Break % | 45.5% | 34% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
William Jansen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Sean Daryabeigi M15 Columbia |
0-1 | 6-7 | L |
| 25/09 | Evan Bynoe M15 Columbia |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/09 | Corey Craig M15 Columbia |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 23/09 | Seydina Andre M15 Columbia |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Billy Blaydes M25 Aldershot |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 29/07 | Louis Bowden M25 Aldershot |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/07 | Naoya Honda M25 Champaign |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 24/07 | Karim Bennani M25 Champaign |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 23/07 | Ilyas Milad Fahim M25 Champaign |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 22/07 | Keaton Hance M25 Champaign |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Mikael Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Matisse Farzam M15 Champaign |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 28/07 | James Trotter Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 21/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Edward Winter Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 19/07 | Pavle Marinkov Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 10/07 | Timo Legout M25 Laval |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Niels Peter Van Noord M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/06 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Alex Kobelt M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in William Jansen vs Mikael Arseneault?
Our model gives 71% to William Jansen, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.