Tennis · W15 Chisinau · 13/10, 09:00
Prediction: Sophie Luescher vs Maria Mikhailova
Team pages: Sophie Luescher · Maria Mikhailova
Prediction summary
Winner
Sophie Luescher
Maria Mikhailova
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Sophie Luescher
5-5 (W-L)
Maria Mikhailova
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sophie Luescher
1–0
Maria Mikhailova
(1 last)
- 08 Oct2-1 15-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sophie Luescher 1530 · Maria Mikhailova 1436
| Sophie Luescher | Maria Mikhailova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sophie Luescher (rating 1530 vs 1436).
- Sophie Luescher is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Sophie Luescher 1–0 Maria Mikhailova (1).
- Note: Sophie Luescher makes many double faults (4.1/match).
- Note: Maria Mikhailova makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Sophie Luescher | Maria Mikhailova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 0.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-10.1 | 7.2-11.6 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 60.9% | 52% |
| Break % | 57.2% | 38.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
H2H · Sophie Luescher 1 – 0 Maria Mikhailova (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sophie Luescher 1–0 Maria Mikhailova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/26 W15 Chisinau | 2-1 | 15-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sophie Luescher
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Zuzanna Kolonus W15 Chisinau |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Maria Mikhailova W15 Chisinau |
2-1 | 15-7 | W |
| 06/10 | Sara Victoria Balan W15 Chisinau |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 05/10 | Nala Kovacic W15 Chisinau |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/09 | Daphnee Mpetshi Perricard W15 Dijon |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Meline Lataste W15 Dijon |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/09 | Aurora Zurmuehle W15 Dijon |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/09 | Patricia Ordonez Anduiza W15 Dijon |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 01/09 | Marine Szostak W15 Cap d'Agde |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 23/08 | Karolina Kozakova W35 Verbier Qual |
1-2 | 8-13 | L |
Maria Mikhailova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Sophie Luescher W15 Chisinau |
1-2 | 7-15 | L |
| 07/10 | Melissa Boyden W15 Chisinau |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/08 | Zeel Desai W15 Astana |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Ha Eum Lee W15 Astana |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Sandugash Kenzhibayeva W15 Astana |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Daria Belyaeva W15 Astana |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Federica Sacco W35 Mohammedia · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Leonie Rabl W35 Mohammedia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Warda Ait El Bachir W35 Mohammedia · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Lorena Solar Donoso W15 Casablanca · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sophie Luescher vs Maria Mikhailova?
Our model gives 77% to Sophie Luescher, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.