Tennis · Challenger Santa Cruz · 12/10, 16:00
Prediction: Mateus Alves vs Bruno Fernandez
Team pages: Mateus Alves · Bruno Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Mateus Alves
Bruno Fernandez
Estimated games
20.1
Recent form · 10 last
Mateus Alves
8-2 (W-L)
Bruno Fernandez
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mateus Alves 1556 · Bruno Fernandez 1471
| Mateus Alves | Bruno Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mateus Alves (rating 1556 vs 1471).
- Mateus Alves is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mateus Alves | Bruno Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-7.1 | 9.2-11.5 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 76% | 58.8% |
| Break % | 51.1% | 57.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mateus Alves
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Jose Pereira Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Bautista De La Pena Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Jose Pereira Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/09 | Wilson Leite M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/09 | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/09 | Manuel Mouilleron Salvo M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/09 | Pedro Sakamoto M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/09 | Rafael Tosetto M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Bruno Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Nicolas Donoso Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 11-2 | W |
| 04/10 | Bernardo Munk Mesa Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Wilson Leite Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 28/09 | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 27/09 | Federico Zeballos Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 22/09 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Tomas Farjat Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Dante Pagani Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/09 | Mate Valkusz M15 Budapest |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mateus Alves vs Bruno Fernandez?
Our model gives 72% to Mateus Alves, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.