Tennis · Challenger Santa Cruz · 16/10, 20:00
Prediction: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Franco Roncadelli
Team pages: Juan Manuel La Serna · Franco Roncadelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Manuel La Serna
Franco Roncadelli
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Manuel La Serna
7-3 (W-L)
Franco Roncadelli
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Juan Manuel La Serna
1–2
Franco Roncadelli
(3 last)
- 16 May2-1 15-14W
- 28 Mar0-2 5-12L
- 28 Mar1-2 14-20L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Manuel La Serna 1542 · Franco Roncadelli 1475
| Juan Manuel La Serna | Franco Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Manuel La Serna (rating 1542 vs 1475).
- Head-to-head: Juan Manuel La Serna 1–2 Franco Roncadelli (3).
Statistics
| Juan Manuel La Serna | Franco Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-11.4 | 10.7-10.6 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.9% | 57.7% |
| Break % | 48.7% | 49% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
H2H · Juan Manuel La Serna 1 – 2 Franco Roncadelli (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juan Manuel La Serna 1–2 Franco Roncadelli
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Challenger Cordoba | 2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 28/03/25 M25 Lujan | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/03/22 ITF M25 Rosario | 1-2 | 14-20 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Manuel La Serna
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/09 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Tulln · Clay |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 08/09 | Filip Cristian Jianu Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 04/09 | Yanaki Milev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 03/09 | Nikita Mashtakov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/08 | Hynek Barton Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 25/08 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 20/08 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Sion · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 18/08 | Facundo Mena Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Franco Roncadelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 06/10 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/08 | Elias Ymer US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Jakub Nicod Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Manuel La Serna vs Franco Roncadelli?
Our model gives 53% to Juan Manuel La Serna, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.