Tennis · Challenger Maia · 12/10, 11:00
Prediction: Patrick Schoen vs Michael Vrbensky
Team pages: Patrick Schoen · Michael Vrbensky
Prediction summary
Winner
Patrick Schoen
Michael Vrbensky
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Patrick Schoen
9-1 (W-L)
Michael Vrbensky
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Patrick Schoen 1579 · Michael Vrbensky 1412
| Patrick Schoen | Michael Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 28% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Patrick Schoen (rating 1579 vs 1412).
- Patrick Schoen is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Michael Vrbensky makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Patrick Schoen | Michael Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (5) | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.3 | 0.8-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-6.1 | 11.3-14.4 |
| Aces | 2 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 74.4% | 63.7% |
| Break % | 54.1% | 42.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Patrick Schoen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Guilherme Valdoleiros Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/10 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/10 | Filip Misolic Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/10 | Alberto Barroso Campos Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/09 | Fausto Tabacco M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/09 | Tiago Cacao M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 18/09 | Robin Bertrand M25 Sintra |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 17/09 | Salvador Monteiro M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Guilherme Valdoleiros M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Michael Vrbensky
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Prague · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 27/07 | Maxime Janvier Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 20/07 | Patrik Niklas-Salminen Challenger Tampere · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 28/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Milos Karol Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Dali Blanch Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/05 | Robin Bertrand Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Patrick Schoen vs Michael Vrbensky?
Our model gives 76% to Patrick Schoen, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.