Tennis · M15 Offenbach · 12/10, 11:30
Prediction: Sebastian Grundtvig Jorgensen vs Noel Larwig
Team pages: Noel Larwig
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Grundtvig Jorgensen
Noel Larwig
Estimated games
20.2
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Grundtvig Jorgensen
6-4 (W-L)
Noel Larwig
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Grundtvig Jorgensen 1525 · Noel Larwig 1470
| Sebastian Grundtvig Jorgensen | Noel Larwig | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Grundtvig Jorgensen (rating 1525 vs 1470).
- Note: Sebastian Grundtvig Jorgensen makes many double faults (5.9/match).
- Note: Noel Larwig makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Sebastian Grundtvig Jorgensen | Noel Larwig | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.8 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-8.3 | 9.8-12 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 5.9 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 75.1% | 64.2% |
| Break % | 38.4% | 37.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Grundtvig Jorgensen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Finn Hopfe M15 Offenbach |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/09 | Ashwin Ryan Sharma M15 Bali |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Thomas Patton M15 Bali |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Dorian Tremblay M15 Malmo |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/08 | Linus Rohlin M15 Malmo |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/08 | Oliver Wei Liu M15 Malmo |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/07 | Ivan Ivanov M25 Gentofte |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Nikola Djosic M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/06 | Niklas Guttau M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Vincent Dullinger M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Noel Larwig
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Wout Vermeer M15 Offenbach |
2-0 | 11-5 | W |
| 16/09 | Daniil Sarksian M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Matthias Ujvary M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | John Hallquist Lithen M15 Bastad · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Oscar Moraing M15 Bastad · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 09/08 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 06/08 | Alec Beckley M15 Bielsko Biala |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Kacper Knitter M15 Bielsko Biala |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 30/07 | Alan Wazny M25 Koszalin |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Bruno Kokot M25 Koszalin |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Grundtvig Jorgensen vs Noel Larwig?
Our model gives 54% to Sebastian Grundtvig Jorgensen, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.