Tennis · Challenger Santa Cruz · 13/10, 16:00
Prediction: Valerio Aboian vs Franco Roncadelli
Team pages: Valerio Aboian · Franco Roncadelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Valerio Aboian
Franco Roncadelli
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Valerio Aboian
4-6 (W-L)
Franco Roncadelli
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Valerio Aboian
2–1
Franco Roncadelli
(3 last)
- 04 Apr2-1 17-13W
- 04 Nov0-2 7-13L
- 20 Mar2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valerio Aboian 1541 · Franco Roncadelli 1450
| Valerio Aboian | Franco Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerio Aboian (rating 1541 vs 1450).
- Valerio Aboian is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Valerio Aboian 2–1 Franco Roncadelli (3).
Statistics
| Valerio Aboian | Franco Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 0.7-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10.9 | 9.4-10.6 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 1st serve % | 65.9% | 58.2% |
| Break % | 40.3% | 42.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Valerio Aboian 2 – 1 Franco Roncadelli (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerio Aboian 2–1 Franco Roncadelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/25 ITF M25 Chacabuco | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 04/11/22 ITF M15 Santa Cruz | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 20/03/22 ITF M25 Medellin | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valerio Aboian
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 21/09 | Matias Franco Descotte Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 20/09 | Julian Cundom Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 11/09 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/09 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/09 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 07/09 | Lorenzo Rottoli Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 06/09 | Luca Castagnola Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Franco Roncadelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/08 | Elias Ymer US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Jakub Nicod Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Oskari Paldanius Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/07 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valerio Aboian vs Franco Roncadelli?
Our model gives 52% to Franco Roncadelli, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.