Tennis · Challenger Santa Cruz · 11/10, 21:00
Prediction: Boris Arias vs Thiago Cigarran
Team pages: Boris Arias · Thiago Cigarran
Prediction summary
Winner
Boris Arias
Thiago Cigarran
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Boris Arias
3-7 (W-L)
Thiago Cigarran
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Boris Arias 1438 · Thiago Cigarran 1508
| Boris Arias | Thiago Cigarran | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Cigarran (rating 1438 vs 1508).
- Thiago Cigarran is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Boris Arias makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Boris Arias | Thiago Cigarran | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (9) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.5 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.6-10.9 | 12.4-9.6 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 59.9% | 68.7% |
| Break % | 49.6% | 55% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boris Arias
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Santiago De La Fuente Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Patrick Schoen Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Andrej Martin Challenger Prague · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Ergi Kirkin Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 12/04 | Dan Martin Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/03 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/03 | Conner Huertas Del Pino Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 22/03 | Enzo Lima Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/03 | Federico Gaston Gonzalez Benitez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Thiago Cigarran
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 04/10 | Anders Matta Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/09 | Santiago Pesino Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Seville · Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 04/09 | Karim Bennani M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Idriss Haddouch M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/09 | Frazier Rengifo M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/08 | Jannik Maute M15 Allershausen |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 28/08 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra M15 Allershausen |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 27/08 | Frederic Schlossmann M15 Allershausen |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boris Arias vs Thiago Cigarran?
Our model gives 72% to Thiago Cigarran, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.