Tennis · Challenger Maia · 13/10, 11:00
Prediction: Sumit Nagal vs Henrique Rocha
Team pages: Sumit Nagal · Henrique Rocha
Prediction summary
Winner
Sumit Nagal
Henrique Rocha
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Sumit Nagal
3-7 (W-L)
Henrique Rocha
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sumit Nagal 1425 · Henrique Rocha 1562
| Sumit Nagal | Henrique Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Henrique Rocha (rating 1425 vs 1562).
- Henrique Rocha is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Sumit Nagal | Henrique Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.6 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 9-11.7 | 12.4-9.9 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 57.4% | 67.8% |
| Break % | 29.3% | 40.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sumit Nagal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Yibing Wu Asian Games |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Seong Chan Hong Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/09 | Soonwoo Kwon Davis Cup |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Hyeon Chung Davis Cup |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 25/08 | Arthur Gea US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Prague · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/08 | Max Houkes Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Henrique Rocha
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 02/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/09 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/09 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/09 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Lloyd Harris US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 25/08 | Michael Mmoh US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sumit Nagal vs Henrique Rocha?
Our model gives 71% to Henrique Rocha, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.