Tennis · Challenger Maia · 13/10, 11:00
Prediction: Andrea Pellegrino vs Lorenzo Giustino
Team pages: Andrea Pellegrino · Lorenzo Giustino
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrea Pellegrino
Lorenzo Giustino
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Andrea Pellegrino
4-6 (W-L)
Lorenzo Giustino
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Andrea Pellegrino
1–2
Lorenzo Giustino
(3 last)
- 23 May2-0 12-8W
- 18 Aug0-2 6-12L
- 04 Apr0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Pellegrino 1482 · Lorenzo Giustino 1549
| Andrea Pellegrino | Lorenzo Giustino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Giustino (rating 1482 vs 1549).
- Lorenzo Giustino is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Andrea Pellegrino 1–2 Lorenzo Giustino (3).
Statistics
| Andrea Pellegrino | Lorenzo Giustino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 43% (7) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-11.6 | 12.2-10.8 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.1% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 36.6% | 33% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
H2H · Andrea Pellegrino 1 – 2 Lorenzo Giustino (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andrea Pellegrino 1–2 Lorenzo Giustino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/22 Challenger Vicenza | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/08/17 Challenger Cordenons | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/04/17 ITF Italy F7 | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Pellegrino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Matej Dodig Challenger Braga · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 09/09 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Colton Smith US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/08 | Zizou Bergs Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/07 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/07 | Gonzalo Bueno ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 18/07 | Joao Silva ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Lorenzo Giustino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Palermo · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 06/10 | Christian Langmo Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | John Sperle Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 25/09 | Gerard Campana Lee M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Matias Ponce de Leon Gomila M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
1-0 | 12-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Enrique Carrascosa Diaz M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Grigor Dimitrov US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 19/08 | Henry Bernet Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 18/08 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Pellegrino vs Lorenzo Giustino?
Our model gives 53% to Andrea Pellegrino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.