Tennis · Challenger Maia · 11/10, 15:30
Prediction: Diogo Marques vs Oleksii Krutykh
Team pages: Diogo Marques · Oleksii Krutykh
Prediction summary
Winner
Diogo Marques
Oleksii Krutykh
Estimated games
23.6
Recent form · 10 last
Diogo Marques
5-5 (W-L)
Oleksii Krutykh
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Diogo Marques 1458 · Oleksii Krutykh 1542
| Diogo Marques | Oleksii Krutykh | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 9% | 91% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oleksii Krutykh (rating 1458 vs 1542).
- Oleksii Krutykh is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Diogo Marques | Oleksii Krutykh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.5 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-12.6 | 13.1-12 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 69% |
| Break % | 41.3% | 42.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Diogo Marques
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Sergio Callejon Hernando M15 Pontevedra |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Xavi Palomar M15 Pontevedra |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 07/10 | Oscar Weightman M15 Pontevedra |
2-0 | 11-7 | W |
| 05/10 | Pedro Anton Ruibal M15 Pontevedra |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/09 | Finn Murgett M25 Setubal |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/09 | Pierre Antoine Tailleu M25 Sintra |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Finn Murgett M25 Sintra |
1-2 | 9-18 | L |
| 03/06 | Toufik Sahtali M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 27/05 | Nicolas Tepmahc M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 08/05 | Goncalo Marques M25 Loule · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Oleksii Krutykh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Braga · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 07/10 | Javier Barranco Cosano Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 05/10 | Filip Pieczonka Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 04/10 | Francisco Rocha Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 23/09 | Petros Tsitsipas M25 Pardubice |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Melios Efstathiou Davis Cup |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 07/09 | Massimo Giunta Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Stefan Popovic Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/08 | Matias Soto Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Federico Iannaccone Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Diogo Marques vs Oleksii Krutykh?
Our model gives 78% to Oleksii Krutykh, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.