Tennis · Challenger Braga · 09/10, 15:30
Prediction: Elmer Moller vs Tiago Pereira
Team pages: Elmer Moller · Tiago Pereira
Prediction summary
Winner
Elmer Moller
Tiago Pereira
Estimated games
24.7
Recent form · 10 last
Elmer Moller
5-5 (W-L)
Tiago Pereira
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elmer Moller
2–1
Tiago Pereira
(3 last)
- 17 Nov2-1 17-12W
- 22 Sept0-2 10-14L
- 22 Sept2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elmer Moller 1505 · Tiago Pereira 1520
| Elmer Moller | Tiago Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Elmer Moller 2–1 Tiago Pereira (3).
- Note: Elmer Moller makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Elmer Moller | Tiago Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-12.8 | 13.4-13.6 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 64% | 68.1% |
| Break % | 34.6% | 39.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.7
H2H · Elmer Moller 2 – 1 Tiago Pereira (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elmer Moller 2–1 Tiago Pereira
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/25 Challenger Montemar | 2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 22/09/25 Challenger Lisbon | 0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 22/09/24 Challenger Lisbon | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elmer Moller
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/10 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 29/09 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Bari · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Iliyan Radulov Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/09 | Grigor Dimitrov Davis Cup |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 02/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Manacor · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 24/08 | Coleman Wong US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 19/08 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Tiago Pereira
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/10 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Hugo Grenier Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 20/09 | Pavlos Tsitsipas Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 15/09 | Filip Pieczonka Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 14/09 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 13/09 | Imanol Lopez Morillo Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 10/09 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elmer Moller vs Tiago Pereira?
Our model gives 59% to Elmer Moller, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.