Tennis · Challenger Braga · 09/10, 14:00
Prediction: Lukas Neumayer vs Max Alcala Gurri
Team pages: Lukas Neumayer · Max Alcala Gurri
Prediction summary
Winner
Lukas Neumayer
Max Alcala Gurri
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Lukas Neumayer
5-5 (W-L)
Max Alcala Gurri
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lukas Neumayer
2–0
Max Alcala Gurri
(2 last)
- 21 Mar2-0 13-8W
- 07 Apr2-1 16-16W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lukas Neumayer 1550 · Max Alcala Gurri 1625
| Lukas Neumayer | Max Alcala Gurri | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Max Alcala Gurri (rating 1550 vs 1625).
- Max Alcala Gurri is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Lukas Neumayer 2–0 Max Alcala Gurri (2).
Statistics
| Lukas Neumayer | Max Alcala Gurri | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-10.5 | 12.9-7.2 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 66% | 66.4% |
| Break % | 47.1% | 50.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Lukas Neumayer 2 – 0 Max Alcala Gurri (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lukas Neumayer 2–0 Max Alcala Gurri
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/25 M25 Badalona | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/04/22 M25 Reus | 2-1 | 16-16 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lukas Neumayer
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Olle Wallin Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/10 | Florian Broska Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 25/09 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 22/09 | Stefano D'Agostino Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/09 | Zizou Bergs Davis Cup |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 11/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/09 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 08/09 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Coleman Wong US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Max Alcala Gurri
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Patrick Schoen Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 07/10 | Dali Blanch Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 27/09 | Jonas Forejtek Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/09 | Eliakim Coulibaly Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 10/09 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 08/09 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Facundo Mena Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lukas Neumayer vs Max Alcala Gurri?
Our model gives 57% to Max Alcala Gurri, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.