Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 08/10, 10:00
Prediction: Stefano D'Agostino vs Gabriele Maria Noce
Team pages: Stefano D'Agostino · Gabriele Maria Noce
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefano D'Agostino
Gabriele Maria Noce
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Stefano D'Agostino
6-4 (W-L)
Gabriele Maria Noce
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefano D'Agostino 1521 · Gabriele Maria Noce 1515
| Stefano D'Agostino | Gabriele Maria Noce | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Stefano D'Agostino makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Stefano D'Agostino | Gabriele Maria Noce | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-9.7 | 12-11.3 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 6.1 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 62.1% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 49.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefano D'Agostino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Gianmarco Ferrari M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-1 | 9-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/09 | Lorenzo Rottoli Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Niccolo Ciavarella Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/09 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Alexandre Aubriot M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Richard Lacis M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Marko Nikolic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/08 | Alvaro Peiro Serrano M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Gabriele Maria Noce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Giammarco Gandolfi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 20/09 | Lorenzo Rottoli Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Garrett Johns M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Niccolo Ciavarella M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 11/09 | John Sperle M15 Budapest |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 10/09 | Heorhii Shylov M15 Budapest |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/09 | Pietro Marino M15 Budapest |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Manuel Mazza M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Alessandro Battiston M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/09 | Mirko Lagasio M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefano D'Agostino vs Gabriele Maria Noce?
Our model gives 61% to Stefano D'Agostino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.