Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 08/10, 10:00
Prediction: Daniel Michalski vs Alessandro Bellifemine
Team pages: Daniel Michalski · Alessandro Bellifemine
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Michalski
Alessandro Bellifemine
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Michalski
9-1 (W-L)
Alessandro Bellifemine
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Michalski 1603 · Alessandro Bellifemine 1543
| Daniel Michalski | Alessandro Bellifemine | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 92% | 8% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Michalski (rating 1603 vs 1543).
- Daniel Michalski is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Daniel Michalski | Alessandro Bellifemine | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 86% (7) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.2 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-6.8 | 10.5-9 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 1 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 70.7% | 66.9% |
| Break % | 52.4% | 46.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Michalski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Lorenzo Bocchi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/09 | Laurent Lokoli M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/09 | Eric Vanshelboim M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Lorenzo Carboni M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/09 | Giacomo Crisostomo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/09 | Lorenzo Beraldo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/09 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Michael Savano M25 Poznan |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/08 | Nikita Mashtakov M25 Poznan |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/08 | Matyas Cerny M25 Poznan |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Alessandro Bellifemine
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 06/10 | Filippo Francesco Garbero M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-6 | W |
| 22/09 | Samuele Seghetti M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 21/09 | Mattias Pisanu M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/09 | Branko Djuric M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Radovan Michalik M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/08 | Anton Arzhankin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Samuil Chestovaliev M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Timofei Derepasko M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Parth Aggarwal M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Michalski vs Alessandro Bellifemine?
Our model gives 77% to Daniel Michalski, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.