Tennis · M25 Darwin · 07/10, 10:30
Prediction: Luca Connaughton vs Sam Ryan Ziegann
Team pages: Luca Connaughton · Sam Ryan Ziegann
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Connaughton
Sam Ryan Ziegann
Estimated games
19.9
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Connaughton
0-10 (W-L)
Sam Ryan Ziegann
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Connaughton 1385 · Sam Ryan Ziegann 1505
| Luca Connaughton | Sam Ryan Ziegann | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 13% | 87% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sam Ryan Ziegann (rating 1385 vs 1505).
- Sam Ryan Ziegann is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Luca Connaughton | Sam Ryan Ziegann | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (8) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.3-1.9 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 6-12.1 | 10.5-10.4 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 53.9% | 72% |
| Break % | 50.8% | 39.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Connaughton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Adrian Arcon M25 Darwin |
2-1 | 12-9 | W |
| 29/09 | Reece Falck M25 Darwin |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Daniel Jankoski UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Nikita Volonski UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Jeremy Beale UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Ashton Mcleod UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/05 | Jonas Hahn UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Scott Jones UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Casey Ambler UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 12/05 | Marcus Schoeman UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Sam Ryan Ziegann
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Jake Delaney M25 Darwin |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/09 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Thantub Suksumrarn Challenger Phan Thiet Qual · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 07/09 | Yuta Kawahashi Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/09 | Christopher Papa Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Leo Borg M15 Bali |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Stefan Storch M15 Bali |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/09 | Eric Ahren Moonga M15 Bali |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Chan-Yeong Oh M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Connaughton vs Sam Ryan Ziegann?
Our model gives 78% to Sam Ryan Ziegann, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.