Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 06/10, 09:00
Prediction: Gabriele Pennaforti vs Matteo Vavassori
Team pages: Gabriele Pennaforti · Matteo Vavassori
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriele Pennaforti
Matteo Vavassori
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriele Pennaforti
4-6 (W-L)
Matteo Vavassori
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriele Pennaforti 1444 · Matteo Vavassori 1521
| Gabriele Pennaforti | Matteo Vavassori | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matteo Vavassori (rating 1444 vs 1521).
- Matteo Vavassori is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Gabriele Pennaforti makes many double faults (5.8/match).
- Note: Matteo Vavassori makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Gabriele Pennaforti | Matteo Vavassori | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (6) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.2-11.7 | 10.5-9.4 |
| Aces | 2 | 3 |
| Double faults | 5.8 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 60.8% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 40.1% | 46.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriele Pennaforti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Martin Van Der Meerschen M15 Sibenik |
1-2 | 12-19 | L |
| 23/09 | Lorenzo Carboni M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Nicholas David Ionel M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/09 | Nicolas Parizzia M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 19/08 | Thilo Behrmann M15 Mistelbach |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 12/08 | George Lazarov M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Peter Buldorini M25 Fano |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Gabriele Crivellaro M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Giacomo Crisostomo M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/07 | Pietro Marino M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Matteo Vavassori
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Martin Van Der Meerschen M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 16/09 | Marat Salbiev M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 14/09 | Filippo Callerio M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 10/09 | Niklas Guttau M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Sebastian Gima M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Andre Meinertz M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/08 | Luc Wieland M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Giacomo Crisostomo M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · ~Clay |
2-1 | 9-9 | W |
| 14/06 | Oren Ezerzer M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriele Pennaforti vs Matteo Vavassori?
Our model gives 58% to Gabriele Pennaforti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.