Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 06/10, 12:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Berto vs Manuel Mazza
Team pages: Lorenzo Berto · Manuel Mazza
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Berto
Manuel Mazza
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Berto
5-5 (W-L)
Manuel Mazza
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Berto 1527 · Manuel Mazza 1569
| Lorenzo Berto | Manuel Mazza | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Manuel Mazza (rating 1527 vs 1569).
- Note: Lorenzo Berto makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Berto | Manuel Mazza | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-10.4 | 12.2-10.7 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 4 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.6% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 57.1% | 43.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Berto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/09 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 20/09 | Lorenzo Bocchi Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/09 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 04/09 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Lorenzo Bocchi M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/09 | Leonardo Taddia M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 9-3 | W |
| 20/08 | Daniel Michalski M15 Krakow |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Jan Wygona M15 Krakow |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Manuel Mazza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 05/09 | Gabriele Crivellaro M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/09 | Gabriele Maria Noce M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Jacopo Bilardo M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 01/09 | Giacomo Crisostomo M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/08 | Daniele Rapagnetta M25 Lesa |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Lesa |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 27/07 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Niels Visker Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Berto vs Manuel Mazza?
Our model gives 68% to Manuel Mazza, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.