Tennis · Challenger Braga · 06/10, 11:00
Prediction: Mackenzie McDonald vs Ryan Nijboer
Team pages: Mackenzie McDonald · Ryan Nijboer
Prediction summary
Winner
Mackenzie McDonald
Ryan Nijboer
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Mackenzie McDonald
3-7 (W-L)
Ryan Nijboer
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mackenzie McDonald 1456 · Ryan Nijboer 1572
| Mackenzie McDonald | Ryan Nijboer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryan Nijboer (rating 1456 vs 1572).
- Ryan Nijboer is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mackenzie McDonald | Ryan Nijboer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-12.5 | 12-9.6 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 67.8% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 42.4% | 48.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mackenzie McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Toby Samuel Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/08 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 26/08 | Thiago Seyboth Wild US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Stefano Napolitano US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/08 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Yibing Wu ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Edas Butvilas ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Ryan Nijboer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/10 | Nico Hipfl Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 03/10 | Alexander Ritschard M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Nicolas Ifi M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 01/10 | Pierre Delage M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/09 | Cedric Stanke M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Francesco Forti Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Alejandro Juan Mano Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/09 | Iannis Miletich Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/09 | Sander Jong M25 Gijon |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mackenzie McDonald vs Ryan Nijboer?
Our model gives 57% to Ryan Nijboer, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.