Tennis · M25 Darwin · 06/10, 09:00
Prediction: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton
Team pages: Adrian Arcon · Luca Connaughton
Prediction summary
Winner
Adrian Arcon
Luca Connaughton
Estimated games
19.7
Recent form · 10 last
Adrian Arcon
3-7 (W-L)
Luca Connaughton
1-9 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Adrian Arcon
1–0
Luca Connaughton
(1 last)
- 06 Apr2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Arcon 1487 · Luca Connaughton 1396
| Adrian Arcon | Luca Connaughton | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adrian Arcon (rating 1487 vs 1396).
- Adrian Arcon is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Adrian Arcon 1–0 Luca Connaughton (1).
Statistics
| Adrian Arcon | Luca Connaughton | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 10% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 11% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.2 | 0.3-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.4-10 | 6.4-12.5 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66% | 53.4% |
| Break % | 31.1% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.7
H2H · Adrian Arcon 1 – 0 Luca Connaughton (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adrian Arcon 1–0 Luca Connaughton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/25 UTR Pro Craigieburn | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Arcon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Zak Talic M25 Darwin |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Aleksandar Govedarica M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/09 | Markus Malaszszak M15 Nonthaburi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Chen Dong M15 Nonthaburi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Yuki Ikeda M15 Nonthaburi · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-11 | W |
| 30/08 | Tachatam Srisen M15 Nonthaburi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Fanming Meng M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Shintaro Imai M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 11/08 | Yuquan Jin M15 Tianjin |
1-0 | 6-1 | W |
| 28/07 | Elijah Cham M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Luca Connaughton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Reece Falck M25 Darwin |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Daniel Jankoski UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Nikita Volonski UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Jeremy Beale UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Ashton Mcleod UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/05 | Jonas Hahn UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Scott Jones UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Casey Ambler UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 12/05 | Marcus Schoeman UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Nicholas Jovanovski UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton?
Our model gives 70% to Adrian Arcon, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.