Tennis · M25 Darwin · 06/10, 09:00
Prediction: Nikolas Baker vs Alec Braund
Team pages: Alec Braund
Prediction summary
Winner
Nikolas Baker
Alec Braund
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Nikolas Baker
7-3 (W-L)
Alec Braund
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nikolas Baker 1561 · Alec Braund 1514
| Nikolas Baker | Alec Braund | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikolas Baker (rating 1561 vs 1514).
Statistics
| Nikolas Baker | Alec Braund | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-9.4 | 10.7-10 |
| Aces | – | 3.3 |
| Double faults | – | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | – | 64.8% |
| Break % | – | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nikolas Baker
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | Oliver King UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/06 | Brendan Loh UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/06 | Luka Vujacic UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/06 | Casey Ambler UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 02/06 | Valentino De Pellegrin UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Jeremy Beale UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Valentino De Pellegrin UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/05 | Ethan Connelly UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 29/05 | Omar Jasika UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 29/05 | Casey Ambler UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Alec Braund
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Harrison Satara M25 Darwin |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/09 | James Girdler UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Wihan Van Der Merwe UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 18/09 | Eric Tripathi UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 17/09 | Nathan Boniel UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/09 | Zachary Adam-Gedge UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/09 | Scott Jones UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Eric Tripathi UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Oscar Andrews UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/09 | Jerome Estephan UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nikolas Baker vs Alec Braund?
Our model gives 61% to Nikolas Baker, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.