Tennis · Challenger Braga · 07/10, 11:00
Prediction: Matej Dodig vs Andrea Pellegrino
Team pages: Matej Dodig · Andrea Pellegrino
Prediction summary
Winner
Matej Dodig
Andrea Pellegrino
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Matej Dodig
4-6 (W-L)
Andrea Pellegrino
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matej Dodig 1574 · Andrea Pellegrino 1484
| Matej Dodig | Andrea Pellegrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matej Dodig (rating 1574 vs 1484).
- Matej Dodig dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 50.6% break avg.
- Matej Dodig is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Matej Dodig | Andrea Pellegrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 86% (7) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-11.4 | 11-12 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 1 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 80% | 67% |
| Break % | 50.6% | 33.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matej Dodig
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Alexander Zverev Davis Cup |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 06/09 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Johan Nikles Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 02/09 | Henry Bernet Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 31/08 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Andrea Pellegrino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Colton Smith US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/08 | Zizou Bergs Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/07 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/07 | Gonzalo Bueno ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 18/07 | Joao Silva ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matej Dodig vs Andrea Pellegrino?
Our model gives 57% to Matej Dodig, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.